According to the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, the presidential elections and the constitutional referendum in Moldova (October 20, 2024) were well organized, despite an environment marked by disinformation campaigns and foreign interference. One of the most relevant aspects is that the election administration demonstrated professionalism and impartiality during both the campaign and the elections themselves.
Despite the current robust legislation regarding campaign finances, the monitoring capacity of the electoral authorities was quite limited, which may lead to the conclusion that some political parties could have spent more resources than permitted.
In the background, the last decades have been marked by Moldova’s oscillation between pro-European and pro-Russian influences. However, in recent years, the European Union and Chișinău have strengthened their ties. A significant year was 2014, when the Association Agreement (AA) and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) marked a significant deepening of relations and prompted essential reforms within the country. Additionally, Moldova achieved visa liberalization with the EU in the same year. Although many Moldovans already held Romanian passports, this development further reinforced connections at the societal level.
At the same time, Moscow still plays a relevant role through its influence and agents. The recently banned party of oligarch Ihor Shor (which was declared unconstitutional by Moldova’s Constitutional Court), along with the breakaway region of Transnistria, which hosts a Russian military base, and the Russian-speaking autonomous area of Gagauzia, represent the main vehicles for disseminating Russian propaganda and fostering instability in Moldova.
On the other hand, here is a short list of the efforts made by the European Union and Romania in support of Moldova:
- Around one million Moldovan citizens have obtained Romanian citizenship, allowing them to work, travel, and study anywhere in the EU.
- Tens of thousands of young Moldovans are studying in Romanian high schools and universities, including through scholarships.
- Many school minibuses have been donated to schools in Moldova, and over 1,000 kindergartens have been modernized with funding from Romania.
- Numerous heritage buildings, universities, town halls, and parks have been renovated with Romanian funds.
- Moldova has been connected to the European energy system, enabling Romania to export electricity and natural gas to Moldova via the newly constructed Iași-Ungheni-Chișinău pipeline.
- The EU has committed to investing 1.8 billion euros in Moldova over the next three years, marking the largest investment program in the history of the Republic of Moldova.
On October 20, Maia Sandu was the clear frontrunner. Data centralized by the Central Electoral Committee showed that 1,546,077 voters cast their ballots in the first round of the presidential elections, with 656,354, or 42.45%, opting for the current leader of Moldova.
In second place was former Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo, who ran on behalf of the Socialist Party of the Republic of Moldova (PSRM) and received 401,726 votes, representing 25.98% of the total electorate.
However, the situation could become less predictable in the second round of elections, as those dissatisfied with Sandu’s leadership may rally behind the opposition candidate.
Conditioning EU membership on a referendum makes sense; the public should have the chance to voice whether they support this transfer through the accession process. Positive results from this referendum can be used to counter the populist narrative that Brussels “dictates” policies while member states simply “obey.”
The fact that Moldova voted for integration offers a beacon of light in a sea of uncertainty marked by war, manipulation, and the current situation in Georgia. Nevertheless, nothing is guaranteed; the second round of elections in Moldova should be well safeguarded by internal authorities and international observers.
