World Politics between Gunpowder and the Snowball Effect (Part I)

The European Union, France, and NATO

Since the European elections in June 2024, the European Union, the United States, and NATO have gone through key changes, that could produce effects many more years to come. The global chessboard is beginning to change. Very soon after the European elections, there were significant developments in France, which had an important effect on the shift in the balance of power from the center of politics to the extreme left. Great Britain foresaw the greatest defeat of the Conservative Party since its beginnings two centuries ago. The NATO Summit between the 9^th and 11^th of July represented a historic moment not only because of the international political and economic conflicts that are happening as I write this article, but also because of its radical standpoint when it comes to the conflict in Ukraine and its 2+1 main supporters (the Russian Federation, the People’s Republic of China and North Korea). Last but not least, on 13^th July 2024 at the Republican rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, there was an assassination attempt on Donald J. Trump, which is one of the most debated subjects at the moment worldwide.

More and more, it seems that the world will arrive at a point in time when something so big will explode that will have devastating effects on all areas of human lives and experience. It seems like a new snowball lurks in the dark, but is eager to come out to light and wipe out what humanity has built over the centuries. In my opinion, it can be compared to the discovery of gunpowder, which has changed the course of human history and started a millennium of wars, assassinations, and terrible ideologies, but also the search for a democratic system, technological development, and extraordinary pieces of religion, philosophy and psychology.  

Before I will describe the events mentioned above, I will briefly underline the meaning of the gunpowder and the meaning of the snowball effect. On the one hand, gunpowder represents one of the crucial inventions of the 9^th century in Ancient China. Initially, it was called “black powder” and made of a mixture of saltpeter, sulfur, and charcoal, which would be used in the centuries to come as propelling charges in a fight or a war. According to Britannica, the Chinese developed a so-called proto-gun “that channeled the explosive power of gunpowder through a cylinder—initially, a bamboo tube”[1]. Gunpowder could be considered a technological innovation in those times when most of the fights and wars that were fought on European soil were fought with the help of bows and arrows, crossbows, swords, and siege engines in the form of ballista, catapults, and trebuchets.

On the other hand, the snowball effect is a political science term, which is closely linked to the 1989 chain of European revolutions directed against the communist dictatorships, present at that time mainly in Eastern and Central Europe. In political science, the snowball effect starts from a small but significant change in the local or regional political architecture and grows more and more in time until it can reach significant dangerous proportions. In the context of the 1989 revolutions, this snowball effect played an important role not only in the case of the transition towards democracy but also in terms of psychology, as stated by Dragos Petrescu in his book “Entangled Revolutions”: “The <<snowballing effect>> played an instrumental role in creating a special state of mind throughout the region, at both the level of the communist ruling elites and the level of the populations”[2]. Therefore, starting with the political changes in Poland, there was a sequence of events that triggered revolutionary movements in Hungary, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Bulgaria, and Romania.

Coming back to our subject, the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 can be described as a “rediscovery of the gunpowder” for a series of events, which play the role of the “snowball effect”:

1. The continuation and escalation of the Ukraine political conflict in terms of changes in supply chains at the international level and in terms of ongoing field battles in Ukraine;
2. This triggered a quasi-unified Western response in terms of the sanction packages and economic measures against Russia;
3. Humanitarian Crisis and refugee response, the Ukrainians seeking shelter from the war;
4. The energy crisis and the shift in terms of Energy policies;
5. NATO expansion (Finland and Sweden becoming the new members of the alliance);
6. The global food security concerns and increased prices, affecting mainly Africa and the Middle East; the increased defense spending and military reassessments of many European nations, including Poland and Germany;
7. Economic changes and inflation, affecting the morale and the disposition of the general population;
8. The rise in popularity of the Eurosceptic parties within the EU, advocating for peace negotiations in Ukraine and for more “national sovereignty” in relation to Bruxelles, but seeking wisdom in the East (the case of Viktor Orban, the prime minister of Hungary, the case of “Alternative for Germany” or the case of the “Alliance for the Unity of Romanians”);
9. The results of the European elections, which underline the general wish for a conservative Europe, focused on national identity, control of illegal immigration, and inflation concerns;
10. The slight fragmentation of the European landscape, and the voting preference slightly shifting from the traditional parties to a more ideological spectrum; 
11. A more radical defense and security statement of international organizations against the warmongers of the world.

More particularly, what happened since 9^th June 2024?

In France, Rassemblement National (in English: the National Rally) of Marine Le Pen won the European elections, thus Macron dissolving the Parliament and hoping for a national party alliance against the so-called “far right” represented by Le Pen. In the first round of parliamentary elections, the same National Rally won 33.2% of the votes, followed by the extreme left-wing alliance Nouveau Front Populaire (in English: New Popular Front) with 28% of the votes. The centrist party alliance of Macron (the Ensemble) won only 20% of the votes[3]. After the first round of elections, President Emmanuel Macron called again for a national alliance against the “far-right” represented by the National Rally: “<<Faced with the National Rally, the time has come for a broad, unequivocally democratic and republican alliance for the second round>>”[4]. The second round of elections happened on 7^th July 2024, which came as a shock for the international arena. The winner of the elections was not the National Rally, as most publications would estimate, but the New Popular Front, which represents an alliance of France Unbowed (a radical left party led by the communist Jean Luc Melenchon), the Socialist Party (which gave 2 presidents in the 20^th and 21^st century, namely François Mitterrand and François Hollande) and the historic stalinist French Communist Party. On second place, there came the centrist alliance of President Macron, namely Ensemble, and on third place came the National Rally of Marine le Pen. Therefore, the official result after the parliamentary elections is: the New Popular Front, with 32.6% of the votes, has 188 seats in the French Parliament; Ensemble has 27.9% of the votes, meaning 161 of the seats, and the National Rally, with 24.6% of the votes, controls 24.6% of the seats[5].

Even though initially Emmanuel Macron did not accept the prime minister’s resignation, on 16^th July 2024, he did take it with the condition that Gabriel Attal would remain in function until the formation of the new government. Moreover, the new winner alliance of the elections, namely the New Popular Front, succeeded in coming back to the old traditional way of doing politics, meaning arguing for who should be the next prime minister: “France Unbowed suspended the talks on Monday, accusing the Socialists of sabotaging candidacies they have put forward to replace Attal”[6]. Because of the divisions between the socialist and the communist parties of the alliance, Macron seized the opportunity to ally with the Republican Party, a center-right party, to elect Yaël Braun-Pivet as President of the National Assembly, with 220 votes, against her main opponent, André Chassaigne, from the New Popular Front.

Great Britain represents another interesting case also because of the new parliamentary general elections. As the English say, “The winner takes it all”. Therefore, the main winner of the elections was the Labour Party, led by Sir Keir Starmer. According to the full report released by the House of Commons Library, the Labour Party won “with 411 seats and 34% of the vote across the UK”[7]. The main party that decisively lost the elections was the Conservative Party: This was the lowest number of seats the party had won at any general election since 1832”[8], winning 244 seats fewer than in 2019. The other winner of the elections was the Reform UK party with only 5 seats. Keir Starmer became the next prime minister of the United Kingdom. He graduated in 1985 with a bachelor of law degree at the University of Leeds, being also an editor at the left-wing magazine “Socialist Alternatives” from 1986-1987[9]. When it comes to the war in Ukraine, Keir Starmer allowed Ukraine to use the Storm Shadow Missiles against targets inside Russia. According to Sky News, the prime minister told the international arena: “<<It is for defensive purposes, but it is for Ukraine to decide how to deploy it for those defensive purposes. >>”[10].

The last main topic within the first part of my article is the NATO Summit, which took place between the 9^th and 11^th of July 2024 in Washington D.C., where the NATO Heads of State and Government participated at the North Atlantic Council and at the meeting of NATO-Ukraine Council, issuing two key security documents, called “Washington Summit Declaration” and “Statement of the NATO-Ukraine Council”. This meeting also marked 75 years since the formation of the alliance, its necessary existence in our contemporary days being more than obvious. Within the “Washington Summit Declaration”, “Ukraine/Ukrainian” is mentioned 66 times, “Russia/Russian” is mentioned 45 times, and the People’s Republic of China is mentioned 15 times, with the key starting remark that: “Our commitment to defend one another and every inch of Allied territory at all times, as enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty, is iron-clad”[11], admitting at the same that as long as the nuclear weapons exist, “NATO will remain a nuclear alliance”[12]. NATO admits that Russia remains the “most significant and direct threat to Allies’ security”[13]. Moreover, in comparison with the previous years, when it had a more reserved regarding China, in this current statement, NATO mentioned that “The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) stated ambitions and coercive policies continue to challenge our interests, security and values”[14], underlining the growing partnership between Russia and China. Strengthening the NATO Eastern Flank, the capacity of NATO’s Space Operations Centre, and establishing the NATO Integrated Cyber Defence Centre in order to combat any cyber threat represent dominant NATO policies. NATO also underlined all kinds of indirect and hybrid attacks Russia is performing within the NATO territory, starting with sabotage, violence acts, the instrumentalization of illegal migration and continuing with malicious cyber activities, disinformation campaigns, and economic coercion[15].

When it comes to the relationship between NATO and Ukraine, it was decided that the NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine was established to coordinate the military combat and training for Ukraine by the NATO allies. The most important decision in this regard is the establishment of the “Pledge of Long Term Security Assistance for Ukraine”, in which 40 billion Euros will be provided for Ukraine within the next year in terms of military equipment, maintenance, logistics, military training, operational costs, defense investments and the money coming through the program NATO Trust Funds for Ukraine.

Regarding the relationship between NATO and China, NATO wrote the most open and free declaration against China in the context of how China is aiding Russia in the war against Ukraine, making a public call: “We call on the PRC, as a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council with a particular responsibility to uphold the purposes and principles of the UN Charter, to cease all material and political support to Russia’s war effort”[16]. NATO declares that it is developing its resilience and preparedness in order to respond to any of the Chinese “coercive tactics and efforts to divide the Alliance”[17]. 

The “Statement of the NATO-Ukraine Council” transmits the fullest support for Ukraine: “the people of Ukraine have been heroically defending their nation, their land, and our shared values”, underlining the clear fact that Russia did not succeed in its attempt to crush the statehood of Ukraine and to break the hearts and minds of the Ukrainian people: “Russia has failed in its efforts to undermine Ukraine’s statehood and break the resolve of the Ukrainian people”[18].

In the second part of my article, I will move the gunpowder and the snowball effect of politics on the American continent, where a candidate for the presidency was shot and where the other candidate resigned.

[1] “gunpowder”, Britannica, 28th June 2024, accessed at https://www.britannica.com/technology/gunpowder on 17.07.2024

[2] Dragos PETRESCU, “Entangled Revolutions”, Editura Enciclopedica, 2014, p. 37, accessed at https://stacks.stanford.edu/file/druid:yh711kg4756/D.%20Petrescu%20-%20Entangled%20Revolutions.pdf on 17.07.2024

[3] Florin ZANDT, “Who Won the First Round of the 2024 French Legislative Elections”, Statista, 5^th July 2024, accessed at https://www.statista.com/chart/32551/voter-shares-of-the-parties-in-the-first-round-of-the-2024-french-parliamentary-elections/ on 17.07.2024

[4] RFI, “Macron urges democratic alliance against far right after National Rally’s Election Success”, RFI, 30.06.2024, accessed at https://www.rfi.fr/en/france/20240630-macron-urges-democratic-alliance-against-far-right-following-national-rally-s-election-success on 17.07.2024

[5] “France legislative election 2024”, Politico.eu, accessed at https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/ on 17.07.2024

[6] Sylvie CORBET and Barbara SURK, “French president accepts prime minister’s resignation but keeps him as head of caretaker government”, Associated Press, 16^th June 2024, accessed at https://apnews.com/article/france-prime-minister-resign-government-macron-c3a908360a18641ff5879ced259f7726 on 18.07.2024

[7] Richard CRACKNELL, Carl BAKER, “General election 2024 results”, House of Commons Library, accessed at  https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-10009/CBP-10009.pdf on 18.07.2024

[8] Ibidem, p. 6

[9] Jacob STOVALL, “Keir Starmer”, Britannica, accessed at https://www.britannica.com/biography/Keir-Starmer on 19.07.2024

[10] Mark STONE, “Keir Starmer gives go-ahead for British missiles to be used in strikes against targets inside Russia”, Sky News, 11^th July 2024, accessed at https://news.sky.com/story/keir-starmer-gives-go-ahead-for-british-missiles-to-be-used-in-strikes-against-targets-inside-russia-13176370 on 19.07.2024

[11] “Washington Summit Declaration”, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 10^th July 2024, accessed at https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227678.htm on 19.07.2024

[12] Ibidem

[13] Ibidem

[14] Ibidem

[15] Ibidem

[16] Ibidem

[17] Ibidem

[18] “Statement of the NATO-Ukraine Council”, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 11^th July 2024, accessed at https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_227863.htm on 20.07.2024