European Elections- A Pathway to New Political Realities (I)

Germany and France

A round of elections has passed. The clock of the political compass is ticking: left-right, center-right, center-left, Russia-US, Russia-China, China-US, unity-polarization, liberal-conservative… The shadow of political extremism is slowly rising on the European arena, developing its political forces around well-defined political strategies. An increasing number of young voters are slowly turning their eyes toward different political ideologies, representing only “wolves in sheep’s clothing”. Within this article, I will underline the last update of the provisional results within the European Parliament and I will explain the current shifts in the European Union, influenced not only by propaganda, disinformation, and ideological interference but also by mobility, stability, sense of reality and, I would dare to say, hope. In one of his most famous books, namely “The Brothers Karamazov”, Fyodor Dostoyevsky once said: “Above all, don’t lie to yourself. The man who lies to himself and listens to his own lie comes to such a pass that he cannot distinguish the truth within him, or around him, and so loses all respect for himself and for others […] The man who lies to himself can be more easily offended than anyone”[1].

The European Parliament comprises 720 seats and it is formed by different political groups or, in other words, European political families. Every state has a number of seats, which are calculated depending on the size of the population of the member states and “the need for a minimum level of representation for European citizens from smaller countries”[2]. They are organized by political affiliations, currently being 7 political groups, which could change based on the recent European elections results and, therefore, the newly-arising negotiations. According to the official European election provisional results, the European Parliament will look as follows:

1. Group of the European People’s Party (Christian Democrats)- 189 seats;
2. Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats in the European Parliament- 136 seats;
3. European Conservatives and Reformists Group- 83 seats;
4. Renew Europe Group- 74 seats;
5. Identity and Democracy Group- 58 seats;
6. Group of the Greens/European Free Alliance- 53 seats;
7. Non-attached Members- 45 seats[3];
8. A possible new political group, called “The Sovereignists”,which could be formed by the Alternative for Germany and other Euroskeptic national parties (nothing certain)[4].

After presenting the up-to-date election results within the European Parliament, I will look closely at what really happened during and after the European elections. Starting with Germany, because it is the state with the most seats within the European Parliament (96 seats), we can see that the party that won the European election is the Christian Democratic Union in alliance with the Christian Social Union in Bavaria (30,0%)[5], which represents the center-right political spectrum. This result is not very different in comparison with the last European elections from 2019 when CDU won 28.9%, but different in comparison with the German parliamentary elections of 2021, when the Social Democratic Party of Germany was the winner (25.7% of the votes), and CDU/CSU with 24.1% of the votes[6]. Therefore, CDU is sending to Bruxelles 29 members.

In the second place, the German population elected Alternative for Germany, with 15,9% of the votes, in comparison with the last EU elections (10.8%)[7], which represents the main Euroskeptic political force within the German political landscape and one of the Russian and Chinese mouthpieces in Europe: “The relationship with China must be based on Germany’s real political interests. China is one of Germany’s most important trading partners”[8]. In close relationship to this piece of information, Maximilian Krah, the former main candidate for the EU Parliament, is suspected of close ties with Russia and China, recently declaring in an interview that <<“SS were not all criminals ”>>[9]. Because one of the close advisers of Maximilian Krah, Jian Guo, was arrested on suspicion on spying for China, the party decided to ban Krah from campaigning for the EU Parliament[10]. The political scandals of the AfD were so serious, that they were excluded from the European political group they were part of, namely the far-right group Identity and Democracy: <<“The ID Group no longer wants to be associated with the incidents involving Maximilian Krah head of the AfD list for the European Elections”>>[11]. Therefore, AfD is sending to the EU Parliament 15 members.

The third place was occupied by the SPD, with 13.9% of the votes, and the fourth place was occupied by the Greens, with 11.9% of the votes, which represent the main losers of the election, in comparison with the previous European election results of 2019 (20,7% for the Green Party and 15.6% SPD)[12]. The last party of the Ampel alliance, FDP (Free Democratic Party), received 5.2% of the votes. Besides AfD, the other partial winner is the Party “Sahra Wagenknecht”, receiving 6.2%, Sahra Wagenknecht being a former member of the communist party “The Left”. This party was established on 9^th January 2024, with only 44 members, receiving a lot of notoriety in just a couple of months and being in favor of withdrawing the economic sanctions against Russia in the context of the war in Ukraine, according to their European elections program[13]. Therefore, SPD will send to Bruxelles 14 members, the Greens 12 members, FDP 5 members and BSW 6 members[14].

After describing the EU elections in Germany, I will move my spectrum to France, where the situation is much more serious regarding the rise of political extremism. The winner of the EU elections in France is the party Rassemblement National, led by Marine le Pen, with 31.37% of the votes (30 seats), followed by the centrists of the coalition Besoin d’Europe, led by Emmanuel Macron, with 14.6% of the votes (13 seats). In third place is the coalition Réveiller l’Europe, formed by Parti socialiste and Place publique, with 13,83% (13 seats) [15]. The direct consequence of this result is the dissolvement of the lower house of the French Parliament, establishing future legislative elections in two rounds, namely on 30^th June and 7^th July. 81 members in the EU Parliament represent France[16]. Emmanuel Macron thought that this could be a political risk that he could take in order to rally all the democratic parties around him to defeat the rise of Euroscepticism in France and to reinstate its political legitimacy.

In my opinion, this is a double-edged sword. On the one side, it could wake up the French nation to stand against the political values of the party Rassemblement National, but, on the other hand, this political maneuver could also work against his political plans because such a victory for the Eurosceptic party, led by Marine Le Pen, could mobilize the silent voters against Macron. Marine le Pen is one of the political party leaders close to the political rhetoric of Moscow, its party having direct contact with a Russian bank. According to Politico, Rassemblement National “has paid back over €6 million to Russian company Aviazapchast S.A., including <<capital and interest>>, National Rally lawmaker and party treasurer Kévin Pfeffer said in a press release”[17], Marine Le Pen took the loan in 2014 from the First Czech Russian Bank. After the bank became bankrupt, it passed the loan to the Russian company Abiazapchast. At the same time, in 2014, the party borrowed 9 million Euros from a Russian bank in order to finance its election campaign[18]. Moreover, in a leaflet from the presidential elections of 2022, Le Pen is shown in a picture shaking hands with Vladimir Putin during a visit she made to Russia in 2017[19].

In the next part of the article, I will describe the election results in four other EU countries, a result that had a powerful impact: Romania, Austria, Italy, and Spain.

[1] Fyodor Dostoevsky, “The Brothers Karamazov”, accessed at https://www.planetebook.com/free-ebooks/the-brothers-karamazov.pdf on 25.06.2024

[2] “2024-2029. European Parliament: how many MEPs per country”, European Parliament, 17.06.2024, accessed at https://www.europarl.europa.eu/topics/en/article/20180126STO94114/2024-2029-european-parliament-how-many-meps-per-country on 25.06.2024

[3] “2024 European election results”, European Parliament, accessed at https://results.elections.europa.eu/en/index.html on 25.06.2024

[4] Federico BACCINI, “The far right in the EU Parliament in turmoil. Afd tries to lead in a group with those excluded”, EUNews, 24^th June 2024, accessed at https://www.eunews.it/en/2024/06/24/the-far-right-in-the-eu-parliament-in-turmoil-afd-tries-to-lead-a-new-group-with-those-excluded/ on 25.06.2024

[5] “2024 European election results”, European Parliament, accessed at https://results.elections.europa.eu/en/germany/ on 25.06.2024

[6] “2021 Federal parliament elections”, Facts about Germany, accessed at https://www.tatsachen-ueber-deutschland.de/en/politics-germany/bundestag-election-2021-results on 25.06.2024

[7] Ben KNIGHT, “EU election result increases pressure on Merkel”, Deutsche Welle, 26.05.2019, accessed at https://www.dw.com/en/german-eu-election-results-ramp-up-pressure-on-merkels-coalition/a-48884360 on 25.06.2024

[8] “Europawahl Programm 2024”, AFD, p. 9, accessed at https://www.afd.de/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/2023-11-16-_-AfD-Europawahlprogramm-2024-_-web.pdf on 25.06.2024

[9] “Germany: Far-right AfD bans top EU candidate from campaigning”, Deutsche Welle, accessed at https://www.dw.com/en/gemany-far-right-afd-bans-top-eu-candidate-from-campaigning/a-69146709 on 25.06.2024

[10] Kate CONNOLLY, “AfD politician’s aide arrested on suspicion of spying for China”, the Guardian, 23^rd April 2024, accessed at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/23/afd-politician-employee-arrested-germany-on-suspicion-of-spying-for-china on 25.06.2024

[11] Angela SKUJINS and Mared JONES, “Germany’s far right AfD party expelled from European Parliament group”, Euronews, 23.05.2024, accessed at https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/05/23/european-parliaments-id-party-requests-to-expel-far-right-afd on 26.06.2024

[12] Ibidem

[13] Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, “Programm für die Europawahl 2024“, p. 9, accessed at https://bsw-vg.de/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/BSW_Europawahlprogramm_2024.pdf on 25.06.2024

[14] “Deutschland”, European Parliament, accessed at https://results.elections.europa.eu/de/nationale-ergebnisse/deutschland/2024-2029/ on 26.06.2024

[15] “France”, European Parliament, accessed at https://results.elections.europa.eu/en/national-results/france/2024-2029/ on 26.06.2024

[16] Sylvie CORBET and Samuel PETREQUIN, “Macron Dissolves French Parliament and Calls a Snap Election After Defeat in EU Vote”, Time, 10^th June 2024, accessed at https://time.com/6987112/emmanuel-macron-dissolves-french-parliament-vote/ on 26.06.2024

[17] Claudia CHIAPPA, “Le Pen’s National Rally pays off Russian loan ahead of EU elections”, Politico, 19^th September 2023, accessed at https://www.politico.eu/article/france-marine-le-pen-national-rally-pays-back-russia-loan/ on 26.06.2024

[18] Kim WILLSHER, “French far-right leader Marine Le Pen forced to defend Putin links”, The Guardian, 2^nd March 2022, accessed at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/02/french-far-right-leader-marine-le-pen-forced-to-defend-putin-links on 26.06.2024

[19] “Marine Presidente”, accessed at https://mlafrance.fr/pdfs/tract-france-quon-m.pdf on 26.06.2024