At last, the United States, Germany, and other NATO countries allowed Ukraine to use the weapons provided by them in order to attack the Russian territory. The key question in this context remains: why now? Why so late within the game? Why did the democratic states approve of such an important step after more than 2 years since the outbreak of the conflict? After the outbreak of the invasion, on 24th February 2022, Ukraine had its hands tied on how to use the weapons and against whom. Now, the Secretary-General of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, told the world that Ukraine has not only the right to self-defense but also that he welcomes the “easing” of certain restrictions when it comes to the rules of the game surrounding Ukraine. Other NATO countries that allow this swift strategic change are France, the United Kingdom, Finland, Poland, Lithuania, and the Netherlands[1]. Moreover, the Democrats and the Republics in the US Congress approved a new US aid package for Ukraine, comprising 61 billion dollars. This could be crucial because of the more than 360 sq km of territory that Russia captured between 1st January 2024 and 23rd April 2024. The German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, declared that a war between NATO and Russia needs to be avoided, but, at the same time, NATO is prepared to defend every inch of its territory in the context of an invasion from Russia. He made these declarations while agreeing to deploy a Bundeswehr (German army) deploy of 4800 soldiers in order to protect Lithuania[2].
When it comes to declarations about a possible war with Russia, General Eirik Kristoffersen, the head of the Norwegian Armed Forces, declared that Europe has 2 to 3 years to prepare its defenses before Russia will build its ability to launch an attack against NATO, the Kyiv Independent reported. In terms of Norway’s contribution to defense spending, “Norway has increased its defense spending since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale war in Ukraine and aims to meet the 2% of GDP threshold in 2024, with a further increase of 2.7% of GDP targeted by 2030.”[3]
Within this international context, I would like to continue my previous article and describe how France and Poland are seeing the conflict in Ukraine, how they are positioning towards the events in Ukraine and towards NATO, and their view on a possible war between NATO and Russia.
On the one hand, because of its long adversities and wars with the Russian Empire and the USSR, Poland has positioned itself strongly in solidarity with the Ukrainian people. From the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Poland has accepted around 1 million refugees from Ukraine (the number is relevant as of 15th December 2023)[4]. Poland is not only following the European Council’s directive regarding the grant of temporary protection to migrants fleeing from Ukraine but also Poland decided to create legislation “on the legal status of Ukrainians fleeing the war”[5]. Among the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Denmark, Poland is present in terms of military aid over time, providing military support to Ukraine of around 9 billion Euros[6]. In an interview conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in September 2022, Zbigniew Rau, the minister of foreign affairs of Poland, underlined the importance of the United States on the international arena in terms of protecting the world against imperialism and stressed out the fact that, at the beginning of the war, Poland was the first country to help Ukraine and the second military aid supplier, after the United States: “In the face of this war Poland was the first to help Ukraine. We became her closest frontline partner, humanitarian supplier, and logistical hub. Not only are we the first among the European allies to send military donations to Ukraine, but we are second behind the United States in all military support”[7].
Moreover, when discussing the relationship between Poland and NATO, the Polish President, Andrej Duda, declared that Poland is ready to host military nuclear weapons on its territory, being in full support of the NATO policies in the Eastern flank[8]. Even though there were some changes regarding the national political landscape of Poland due to last year’s elections, Poland’s current foreign minister, Radek Sikorski, continues the support mechanisms for Ukraine, declaring in a parliament session that NATO must upgrade its defense mechanisms and that a Russian attack against NATO will end in Russia’s defeat[9]. The current Polish administration, in cooperation with the Baltic states, revealed also a plan to invest 2.4 billion Euros in order to fortify its Eastern border in the case of an attack, including “bunkers, minefields and anti-tank obstacles, as well as electronic elements including satellite monitoring, thermal imaging cameras and anti-drone systems”[10]. This military project has a set of targets in the case of a surprise attack: deterrence, but also to “impede the movement of enemy troops, […] facilitate the movement of Poland’s own forces, and […] protect the civilian population”[11]. Within this context, Poland and five of its allies (the three Baltic states, Norway, and Finland) announced a plan to develop a “drone wall” against any invasion[12].
While Poland continues its deeper cooperation with NATO members against a possible attack from Russia, France is transmitting mixed signals. Emmanuel Macron, the president of France, is speaking more and more about the need for an EU “strategic autonomy”. When it comes to the relationship between France and NATO, in an interview in November 2019, Macron spoke about the “brain death of NATO” and, when the journalist asked about the Article 5 of NATO, which refers to the common security agreement, Macron responded that he is not sure about whether Article 5 will be activated in the case of an attack[13]. Russia also reacted to Macron’s statements and, through the voice of Maria Zaharova, it responded that Macron gave “<<An accurate description of NATO’s current state>>”[14]. From the beginning of the war, France stood against the Russian aggression in Ukraine, but, at the same time, in the first months of 2024, the imports of Liquified Natural Gas from Russia grew in comparison with last year: “Paris has paid over €600 million to the Kremlin for gas supplies since the start of the year, the data showed”[15]. Moreover, according to the report of the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, in 2023, the EU paid 8.2 billion Euros for Russian LNG[16].
At the approximate same time as the report about the LNG gas consumption of the EU in 2023, meaning April 2024, Macron gave a speech at the University of Sorbonne called “Europe- It Can Die”, where Macron clearly underlined the fact that the EU should not be dependent on the United States and it should not be involved within the current economic war between the US and the People’s Republic of China: “the days of Europe buying its energy and fertilizers from Russia, outsourcing to China and relying on the US for security are over […] This year, the British will choose their future, the Americans will choose their future; on June 9th, the Europeans will do the same”[17]. We can see from the report and the sources mentioned above that the imports of LNG from Russia to France and the EU are not over, thus contradicting his own statement (“the days of Europe buying its energy and fertilizers from Russia […] are over”[18]). We can also extract from this statement the bilateral relationship between France and the United States because of France’s ambition to assume again the leadership of Europe.
However, at the other line of the spectrum, Macron reiterates that, if Russia succeeds in conquering Ukraine, there will be no safe space and no security in Europe, describing Russia as a power of destabilization: “<<Who can pretend that Russia will stop there? What security will there be for the other neighbouring countries, Moldova, Romania, Poland, Lithuania and the others?>> he asked”[19]. Therefore, he did not exclude even sending troops to Ukraine if the situation will prove to be catastrophic for Ukraine: “French President Emmanuel Macron said he would consider sending troops to Ukraine in the case of a Russian breakthrough at the front or if Ukraine requested it”[20].
To conclude, seeing the main conflicts on the international arena has led me to believe that a big confrontation between NATO and Russia cannot be excluded. NATO has to prepare its defenses against a more aggressive enemy coming from the East, but also its friends and allies. Russia does not stand alone, being aided by both China and Iran in its expansion goals into Ukraine and its former satellite states. I agree, most humans wish that peace should be achieved in order to have order and balance between the main actors on the international chessboard. But peace is not the same as naivety. We all can see that the Russian offensive in Ukraine has proven to be very difficult to counteract, but maybe this time the member countries of the EU will wake up. Because, if the Chinese bear wakes up before Europe, we will not be able to cover its tracks…
Even though the results of the opinion polls surrounding the EU elections are not very promising, I still have hope… hope that neither the extreme left nor the extreme right will control the European Parliament for the next 4 years. Because if, for example, the Alliance for the Romanian Unity and SOS parties in Romania, the Alternative for Germany in Germany, the National Rally in France, or the Italian League in Italy, will have a considerable influence within the EU Parliament, Russia and China would dance on skeletons once again.
[1] Aurelie PUGNET, “Ukraine given NATO go-ahead to hit targets in Russian territory with US, German weapons”, Euractiv, Prague, 31st May 2024, accessed at “https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/ukraine-given-nato-go-ahead-to-hit-targets-in-russian-territory-with-us-german-weapons/ on 03.06.2024
[2] “Scholz vows Germany’s ‘unwavering’ support for Baltics”, Deutsche Welle, 06.05.2024, accessed at https://www.dw.com/en/scholz-vows-germanys-unwavering-support-for-baltics/a-69006139 on 03.06.2024
[3] Nate OSTILLER, “NATO has 2-3 years to prepare for reconstituted Russian army, top Norwegian general says”, the Kyiv Independent, 4th June 2024, accessed at https://kyivindependent.com/nato-has-2-3-years-to-prepare-for-reconstituted-russian-army-top-norwegian-general-says/ on 04.06.2024
[4] “Estimated number of refugees from Ukraine recorded in Europe and Asia since February 2022 as of March 2024, by selected country”, Statista, accessed at https://www.statista.com/statistics/1312584/ukrainian-refugees-by-country/ on 03.06.2024
[5] Marta JAROSZEWICZ and Mateusz KREPA, “Ukrainian migrant in Poland”, Bundeszentrale für politische Bildung, 16.02.2024, accessed at https://www.bpb.de/themen/migration-integration/laenderprofile/english-version-country-profiles/545413/ukrainian-migrants-in-poland/ on 03.06.2024
[6] “Poland’s total military aid to Ukraine amounts to €8.4 billion”, Yahoo News, accessed at https://www.yahoo.com/news/polands-total-military-aid-ukraine-111427588.html?guccounter=1 on 03.06.2024
[7] “Poland and the War in Ukraine: A Conversation with Zbigniew Rau, Poland’s Minister of Foreign Affairs”, Centre for Strategic & Intelligence Studies, 28th September 2022, accessed at https://www.csis.org/analysis/poland-and-war-ukraine-conversation-zbigniew-rau-polands-minister-foreign-affairs on 03.06.2024
[8] Claudia CHIAPPA, “Poland: We’re ready to host nuclear weapons”, Politico, 22nd April 2024, accessed at https://www.politico.eu/article/poland-ready-host-nuclear-weapons-andrzej-duda-nato/ on 03.06.2024
[9] Euronews, “Russian attack on NATO would end in defeat for Moscow, Polish foreign minister says”, Euronews, 25th April 2024, accessed at https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/04/25/russian-attack-on-nato-would-end-in-defeat-for-moscow-polish-foreign-minister-says on 03.06.2024
[10] Notes from Poland, “Poland unveils details of €2,4 bn fortification of eastern border”, Notes from Poland, 27th May 2024, accessed at https://notesfrompoland.com/2024/05/27/poland-unveils-details-of-e2-4bn-fortification-of-eastern-borders/ on 03.06.2024
[11] Ibidem
[12] Ibidem
[13] BBC, “Nato alliance experiencing brain death, says Macron”, BBC, 7th November 2019, accessed at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50335257 on 04.06.2024
[14] Ibidem
[15] Victor JACK, “France talks tough on Ukraine while gobbling up more Russian gas”, Politico, 11th April 2024, accessed at https://www.politico.eu/article/france-talk-tough-ukraine-while-gobble-up-more-russia-gas/ on 04.06.2024
[16] Petras KATINAS, “Leveraging interdependence: An LNG price cap would have cut Russia’s LNG export revenues by 60% in 2023”, Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, Hannah Ekberg (ed.), April 2024, accessed at https://energyandcleanair.org/wp/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/CREA_Russian-LNG_04.2024.pdf on 04.06.2024
[17] Emmanuel MACRON, “Emmanuel Macron: Europe—It Can Die. A New Paradigm at The Sorbonne”, Groupe d’étudesgéopolitiques, April 2024, accessed at https://geopolitique.eu/en/2024/04/26/macron-europe-it-can-die-a-new-paradigm-at-the-sorbonne/ on 04.06.2024
[18] Ibidem
[19] France 24, “Macron reaffirms possibility of sending troops to Ukraine”, France 24, 2nd May 2024, accessed at https://www.france24.com/en/france/20240502-macron-doesn-t-rule-out-troops-for-ukraine-if-russia-breaks-front-lines on 04.06.2024
[20] Nate OSTILLER and The Kyiv Independent news desk, “Macron says he will consider sending troops to Ukraine in case of Russian breakthrough, Ukrainian request”, the Kyiv Independent, 2nd May 2024, accessed at https://kyivindependent.com/macron-says-he-would-send-troops-to-ukraine-in-case-of-russian-breakthrough-ukrainian-request/ on 04.06.2024