On 24th February 2022, the Russian Federation attacked Ukraine, launching a full-scale invasion. On 7th October 2023, the terrorist organization Hamas attacked Israel, a free and independent state. On 13th April 2024, the largest sponsor of terrorism, Iran, attacked Israel with 300 missiles, most of them being intercepted with the help of the United States, Great Britain, and France… More and more signs are directing us to believe that a war is closer and closer. Is it possible that my generation will experience a world war? Is it possible that Vladimir Putin, the dictator from the Kremlin, will launch an attack against a NATO member in the future years, backed by the dictator from Beijing, namely the current Secretary-General of the Chinese Communist Party, Xi Jinping? Jens Stoltenberg, the current Secretary-General of NATO, emphasized the co-dependence between Russia and China in the current war: “Russia’s friends in Asia are vital for continuing its war of aggression. China is propping up Russia’s war economy.
In return, Moscow is mortgaging its future to Beijing”[1].
It depends… I underlined the current European Union challenges in a more uncertain world in my previous articles. Now, I will write this article to signal the current dangers that the EU and the world are facing because of the growing claws of totalitarian and authoritarian states, but also because of the way in which the West is responding to these crises. My target here is not to criticize the European Union, which represented and represents the beacon of hope for the Romanian economic system and its splendid economic growth with the help of the EU, but to raise awareness and address one key issue that is present within my mind: why is the West so skeptical to decisively respond to the Ukrainian crisis? With a few exceptions (the United States, Great Britain, Poland, and the Baltic States), why is the West so reluctant to send the necessary ammunition and the necessary weapons to Ukraine in order to end this powerful crisis on the Ukrainian field?
Some will say: ‘We do not want to provoke Putin’. Others will say: ‘We believe in peace and war does not represent a solution to any type of crisis’. One of the sayings that the Roman civilization passed on was: ‘Audiatur et altera pars’. This could be translated: ‘May the other side also be heard’[2]. Of course, most of the people wish for peace. Still, peace does not mean ignorance, peace does not mean lack of balance and equilibrium, peace does not mean letting totalitarian and authoritarian states take what territories they want and restore imaginary empires, without any international responsibility and only using propaganda and disinformation techniques as their main arguments.
In the last months, many European military and political leaders stood up and expressed their views concerning the current war on European soil. What was their conclusion? In a couple of years, if Ukraine is crushed, the Russian Federation will start a war with NATO. This means that one of the NATO members will be attacked and, according to Article 5 of the NATO founding treaty, NATO will have to defend its territory. On 2nd December 2023, Jacek Siewiera, “a minister in the Office of the President of Poland and head of the National Security Bureau”[3], warned that the countries of the Eastern flank of NATO will have a 3-year time to prepare for a confrontation with the Russian Federation. On 10th February 2024, German Bundeswehr Inspector General (German army chief of staff), General Carsten Breuer, warned that Germany needs to be ready for a war with Russia in 5 years[4]. Jens Stoltenberg, the current Secretary General of NATO, also warned that, if Russia wins in Ukraine, there is no guarantee that it will not also attack other countries, underlining that the West should be prepared for a long-term confrontation[5]. General Patrick Sanders, the UK army chief, emphasized that the British authorities should prepare the British public to serve in the military in the case of a war with Russia[6]. Last but not least, Armand Goșu, the most brilliant Romanian expert in the field of Russian Federation politics, warned yesterday, on 13th April 2024, that Russia will attack a NATO member: “not tomorrow, not after tomorrow, but it will happen”[7].
Even though more and more military and political leaders are warning that a war with Russia could be close, if Vladimir Putin achieves its goals in Ukraine, Ukraine still waits for military aid from the Western powers. On top of words, there are promises, and on top of many promises, there are made other promises. However, in practice, the Ukrainian soldiers lack ammunition, the Ukrainian air defense system has powerful shortages, and more and more people are dying in Ukraine because of the Russian upper hand in the war: “After months of attritional fighting, Russia is slowly advancing in Ukraine’s eastern region of Donetsk this year. Kyiv’s forces find themselves on the back foot, facing shortages of artillery shells and air defenses, and grappling with manpower problems”[8].
For example, in February 2024, the current chancellor of Germany, Olaf Scholz, a member of the Social Democratic Party, criticized by the opposition for his lack of implication, stopped the delivery of Taurus Long-range missiles to Ukraine, based on the fact that Germany must not be implicated directly in the war[9]. He reiterates his position in March 2024[10]. On 14th March 2024, the majority of the German Parliament rejected the proposition of the Christian Democratic Union, the main opposition party in Germany, to deliver Taurus KEPD-350 missiles to Ukraine: 495 ruled against the delivery and 190 voted in favor[11]. Many of the members who ruled against the delivery were from the “Ampel Koalition”, meaning the “Traffic Light Coalition”: the Social Democratic Party, the Green Party, and the Free Democratic Party. Moreover, the “Alternative for Germany” extremist party also rejected the delivery. With some exceptions from the Green Party and from the Free Democratic Party, the Christian Democratic Union voted for the delivery of the missiles, which is a sign that one party understood the gravity of the situation in Ukraine. Moreover, Rolf Mützenich, the current Chairman of the SPD parliamentary group, talked about ‘refrozening the conflict in Ukraine’[12], reminding me of the Ostpolitik of the former West Germany SPD Chancellor Willy Brand in the Cold War, which was targeted to ‘warm’ relations between Western Germany and Eastern Germany, which was under the umbrella of the Soviet Union. In other words, ‘let’s bargain with the enemy and, why not, relaunch our economic relations…’
In the next part of the article, I will explain the position of other EU states towards the current events within the context of the war in Ukraine, including France and Poland. If the West does not aid Ukraine, both militarily and economically, having at the same time a unitary voice against the Russian aggression against Ukraine, this could tell Vladimir Putin that, once again, Europe will not have the strength to stop another expansion of Russia.
[1] “Doorstep – by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg ahead if the meetings of NATO Ministers of Foreign Affairs in Brussels”, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 4th April 2024, accessed at https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_224111.htm on 16.04.2024
[2] Aaron X. FELLMETH and Maurice HORWITZ, “Guide to Latin in International Law”, Oxford University Press, 2011, accessed at https://www.oxfordreference.com/display/10.1093/acref/9780195369380.001.0001/acref-9780195369380-e-276 on 14.04.2024
[3] “Countries on NATO’s eastern flank have 3 years to avoid war with Russia”, Warshaw Business Journal, 2nd December 2023, accessed at https://wbj.pl/countries-on-natos-eastern-flank-have-3-years-to-avoid-war-with-russia/post/140452 on 14.04.2024
[4] “Germany needs to be ‘war ready’ in 5 years: army chief-of-staff”, The Local Germany, accessed at https://www.thelocal.de/20240211/germany-needs-to-be-war-ready-in-5-years-army-chief-of-staff on 14.04.2024
[5] Nate OSTILLER, „Stoltenberg: West must be prepared for ‘decades-long confrontation with Russia’“, the Kyiv Independent, 10th February, 2024, accessed at https://kyivindependent.com/stoltenberg-west-must-be-prepared-for-decades-long-confrontation-with-russia/ on 14.04.2024
[6] Nicolas CAMUT, “British public should be ready to fight Putin, UK army chief says”, Politico, 24th January 2024, accessed at https://www.politico.eu/article/hold-uk-army-chief-calls-on-government-to-mobilize-the-nation-if-theres-a-war-with-russia/ on 14.04.2024
[7] “Istoricul Armand Goșu: <<Vladimir Putin va ataca un stat NATO. V-o dau în scris. Nu mâine, nu poimâine, dar se va întâmpla>>”, Stirile ProTV, accessed at https://stirileprotv.ro/stiri/actualitate/armand-gosu-putin-va-ataca-un-stat-nato-v-o-dau-in-scris-nu-maine-nu-poimaine-dar-se-va-intampla.html on 14.04.2024
[8] Tom BALMFORTH, “Ukraine’s air defense shortages leave Kharkiv more exposed to Russian bombs”, Reuters, 12ve April 2024, accessed at https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kharkivs-civilians-under-fire-ukraine-faces-catastrophic-air-defence-shortage-2024-04-12/ on 14.04.2024
[9] Nick ALIPOUR, “Germany’s Scholz rules out Taurus long-range missiles delivery to Ukraine”, Euractiv, 26th February 2024, accessed at https://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/germanys-scholz-rules-out-taurus-long-range-missiles-delivery-to-ukraine/ on 14.04.2024
[10] Nick ALIPOUR, “Germany’s Scholz doubles down on opposition to Taurus missile delivery to Ukraine”, Euractiv, 13th March 2024, accessed at https://www.euractiv.com/section/defence-and-security/news/germanys-scholz-doubles-down-on-opposition-to-taurus-missile-delivery-to-ukraine/ on 14.04.2024
[11] “German lawmakers reject Taurus missiles for Ukraine”, Deutsche Welle, 14th March 2023, accessed at https://www.dw.com/en/german-lawmakers-reject-taurus-missiles-for-ukraine-again/a-68518593 on 14.04.2024
[12] “Mützenich bleibt dabei“, Tagesschau, 19th March 2024, accessed at https://www.tagesschau.de/inland/muetzenich-aeusserung-einfrieren-krieg-100.html on 14.04.2024
