European Union – Challenges for the Year 2024 (second part)

We all heard the terrible news that Alexei Navalny is dead or, in other words, was killed by the totalitarian regime of Vladimir Putin. At the same time, we all witnessed the statements of European political and military leaders about the probability of a Russian invasion on NATO soil in the coming 3-5 years[1] or the interview between Tucker Carlson, one of the most controversial journalists within the American landscape, and Vladimir Putin, in which Putin reemphasized the “civilizational” role of Russia throughout the centuries, the inexistence of the Ukrainian state and the praise of the People’s Republic of China and its Secretary General, Xi Jinping. Moreover, Tucker Carlson did not even question any sentence of Putin and did not even ask about the Bucha massacres made by the Russian occupying forces. In this international context, I would like to emphasize the other 2 main challenges that the European Union faces in 2024, a very unpredictable year not only in terms of the European elections in June but also in terms of the political landscape within the member states:

1. The American elections in November 2024. The elections in the United States could represent the most expected election event of the year. Firstly, there are the Primary elections which will decide the candidate who will win the most votes within the party itself. On the one hand, Donald J. Trump appears to be the Republican candidate with the most chances of winning the Primaries (63% of the votes)[2] and, so far, the favorite to win the Presidential elections in 2024[3]. On the other hand, the Democratic Party candidate with the most chances of winning the Primaries is Joe Biden, being the second favorite in terms of general elections[4]. Donald Trump proposes a more quasi-isolationist foreign policy within the spectrum of “America First”, a redefined concept that originated at the beginning of World War II, being the name of an organization that opposed American entry into the war. This fact highlights the primacy of the US national interest as the main element in domestic and foreign policy. If we analyze the National Security Strategy of the past Trump administration, we will see that it is underlined that the inclusion of rival countries in international organizations and bilateral treaties with them was not the best possible action to take for these actors to become credible and benign internationally. On the contrary, they have become increasingly assertive to the detriment of US interests: “These competitions require the United States to rethink the policies of the past two decades—policies based on the assumption that engagement with rivals and their inclusion in international institutions and global commerce would turn them into benign actors and trustworthy partners”[5]. Furthermore, if we look at the elections in 2016, there is a key discrepancy between how Trump puts into question the existence of NATO and what he actually did as president. In practice, the actions of the Trump administration aimed at strengthening NATO’s eastern flank by conducting military exercises, increasing the American military presence in Europe, and the delivery of defensive weapons to Ukraine. However, the recent controversial statements made recently triggered a set of defensive reactions from the EU leaders: “At a rally on Saturday, he said he had once told a leader he would not protect a nation behind on its payments, and would <<encourage>> the aggressors to <<do whatever the hell they want>>”[6]. He also compared his situation concerning his trials with what happened to Alexei Navalny[7]. Joe Biden became president in turbulent international times when there were already massive deployments of troops at the Ukrainian border and after a long COVID-19 pandemic period. Biden succeeds in surprising the international arena with a form of empathy, underlined within his discourse on 21^st February 2023 in Warsaw: “When Russia invaded, it wasn’t just Ukraine being tested. The whole world faced a test for the ages”[8]. His National Security doctrine is based on multilateral cooperation, climate change and renewable energy, the importance of NATO in the context of the Russian aggression in Ukraine and a series of Indo-Pacific alliances meant to discourage the more and more assertive behavior of China in the South China Sea region. Within his strategy, it is emphasized the fact that China is the only geopolitical actor who tries to change the international order in its favor, using a series of political, economic, diplomatic and military instruments[9]. These elections will undoubtedly determine not only the course of action of the EU in terms of its defensive mechanisms against Russia but also set its strategy when it comes to its diplomatic, political and economic relations with the US.
2. The rise in political extremism across the EU. In my opinion, political extremism will play a major role taking into consideration the future European elections in June 2024. Far-right and far-left extreme political parties will profit from the vulnerabilities of national and international politics within the member states and will deliver a platform based on their ideological view of politics. According to Statista, the top countries where political far-right extremism is more developed are Hungary (Fidesz 59% of the votes), Poland (35%) and Italy (30%)[10]. In plus, Geert Wilders, representing the Party of Freedom, became the prime minister of the Netherlands, having an anti-immigration policy. According to recent polls, in Germany, the Alternative for Germany, a far-right party, has 19% of voting initiatives[11], after a long series of national protests against its extremist views of deportation plans of “those it deems have failed to integrate, including German citizens”[12]. There were more than 1.4 million people across 100 cities across Germany who protested against far-right extremism[13]. In its program for the European elections, AFD speaks about the “Europe of nations” and underlying that the EU is “an undemocratic and incapable of reform construct”[14]. Moreover, it speaks against the Schengen area: “The Schengen, Maastricht and Lisbon treaties undermined the principle of popular sovereignty. The attempt to dissolve functioning democratic nation states and replace them with a kind of European superstate is doomed to failure”[15] and about ending the Russian-Ukrainian war with peaceful measures and “ensure peaceful German-Russian relations”[16]. This emphasizes the sympathies of this political party not only for far-right ideology but also for improving the relations between Germany and Russia. In Romania, two mainstream parties are directing their attention against the EU political vision and towards a closer relationship with the Russian Federation: the Alliance for the Unity of Romanians (AUR) and the party founded by the ex-AUR senator, Diana Sosoaca, namely SOS Romania. George Simion, the leader of the AUR party, has not only an interdiction to enter the Republic of Moldova but also has deep[17] connections with the Russian secret services. Calin Georgescu, one of the previous ideologues of AUR, stated in 2022 that “The chance of Romania is the Russian wisdom”[18]. At the same time, Diana Sosoaca is known for her often visits to the Russian Embassy…

2024 is the year when the fate of millions of people will be decided by the European and national elections. 2024 will be the year when many will express their freedom of choice and the right to vote. In my opinion, these will be crucial elections: they will decide how Europe should contribute to the war in Ukraine, the future relationship between the EU and NATO, the rise or the fall of political extremism within Europe and the future defense mechanism of the EU against two of the most dangerous countries: the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation.

[1] “Danish defense minister warns Russia could attack NATO in 3-5 years- media”, Reuters, 9^th February 2024, accessed at https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/danish-defence-minister-warns-russia-could-attack-nato-3-5-years-media-2024-02-09/ on 21.02.2024

[2] “Presidential candidates, 2024”, Ballotpedia, accessed at https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_candidates,_2024 on 21.02.2024

[3] “Latest polls”, ABC news, 20^th February 2024, accessed at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/ on 21.02.2024

[4] Ibidem

[5] “National Security Strategy”, December 2017, p. 3, accessed at https://trumpwhitehouse.archives.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf on 21.02.2024

[6] James FITZGERALD, “Trump says he would ‘encourage’ Russia to attack NATO allies who do not pay their bills”, BBC, 11^th February 2024, accessed at https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68266447 on 21.02.2024

[7]

[8] „Remarks by President Biden Ahad of the One-Year Anniversary of Russia’s Brutan and Unprovoked Invasion of Ukraine”, White House, 21^st  February 2023, accessed at https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/02/21/remarks-by-president-biden-ahead-of-the-one-year-anniversary-of-russias-brutal-and-unprovoked-invasion-of-ukraine/ on 21.02.2024

[9] „National Security Strategy”, October 2022, The White House, p. 8, accesed at https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/Biden-Harris-Administrations-National-Security-Strategy-10.2022.pdf on 21.02.2024

[10] Martin ARMSTRONG, “Where Europe’s Far-Right Has Gained Ground”, Statista, 23^rd November 2023, accessed at https://www.statista.com/chart/6852/seats-held-by-far-right-parties-in-europe/

[11] “Voting intensions for the German parliament from the 2021 General Election to the 1^st of February 2024, by party”, Statista, 12ve February 2024, accessed at https://www.statista.com/statistics/1257178/voting-intention-in-germany/ on 21.02.2024

[12] “More than 100,000 protest across Germany over far-right Afd’s mass deportation meetings”, The Guardian, 21^st January 2024, accessed at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/jan/21/more-than-100000-protest-across-germany-over-far-right-afds-mass-deportation-meetings on 21.02.2024

[13] Thomas SPARROW, accessed at https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-far-right-afd-claims-media-inflating-size-of-protests-in-germany/a-68055988 on 21.02.2024

[14] “Europawahl Programm 2024”, AFD, p. 9, accessed at https://www.afd.de/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/2023-11-16-_-AfD-Europawahlprogramm-2024-_-web.pdf on 21.02.2024

[15] Ibidem, p. 10

[16] Ibidem, p. 29

[17] “Serviciile secrete ucrainene confirmă că George Simion s-a întâlnit cu un agent FSB la Cernăuți. Reacția AUR”, Digi24, 08.04.2024, accessed at https://www.digi24.ro/stiri/actualitate/politica/serviciile-secrete-ucrainene-confirma-ca-george-simion-s-ar-fi-intalnit-cu-un-agent-fsb-la-cernauti-2308417 on 21.02.2024

[18] <<“Kremlin și AUR. „Șansa României este înțelepciunea rusească”>>, accessed at https://romania.europalibera.org/a/kremlin-si-aur-sansa-romaniei-este-intelepciunea-ruseasca-/31670871.html on 21.02.2024