European Union – Challenges for the Year 2024 (first part)

2024 will be one of the most important years in the 21^st century for the European Union and the international arena. From the 2024 crucial European elections which will be held between 6 and 9 June 2024 and the United States November elections to the ongoing war in Ukraine, the European Union’s fate is to be decided in the following months both by international circumstances and by the European citizens. The European elections from 6^th to 9^th June 2024 are the nuclear foundation of the future of the EU in the next couple of years, not only because these are the general principles of the elections, but also because of the powerful phenomena of fake news and disinformation. After the Second World War, one of the EU-Pioneers and former chancellor of Germany, Konrad Adenauer, said this about the future project of the European Coal and Steel Community: “In past decades and centuries, coal and steel have played a destructive role in conflicts between the peoples of Europe, having been used to manufacture weapons. Let us hope coal and steel will now unite them in thinking and acting together”[1]. This could represent a metaphor for one of the EU challenges today, making a bridge between the conservative and the liberal parts of the EU. Here are some of the key challenges the EU has to face in 2024:

1. The war in Ukraine. The aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine moves towards 2 years of full-scale conventional war. This action led by the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, triggered a set of paramount risks at the EU and NATO level. Therefore, it is important to understand the role of the EU and its ability to contribute to further support the road of Ukraine into the EU and the reconstruction of Ukraine, to develop future and more decisive sanctions against Russia and to further support the military aid to Ukraine. In a report issued by the European Commission in November 2023 underlining the progress of Ukraine into the EU enlargement process, it was concluded that the Real GDP decreased by 29.1% in 2022 due to the war that is destroying the Ukrainian economic structure[2]. When it comes to the democratic progress of Ukraine, the report highlighted that “The Rada performed important symbolic functions, while concerns were raised about limited transparency on security grounds and weakened oversight of the executive”[3]. In terms of aid, the EU as a unitary voice succeeded in helping Ukraine with more than 85 billion dollars[4]. Furthermore, at this moment in time, in terms of total bilateral aid to Ukraine, the US occupies the first rank with 71.383 billion Euros, the military commitments being around 43.856 billion Euros. Germany occupies the second place in terms of total commitments in value of 20.963 billion Euros, the military commitments being around 17.132 billion Euros. The third place is occupied by Great Britain, with total commitments in value of 13.267 billion Euros, the military ones being around 6.566 billion Euros[5]. In terms of reconstruction, there is the grand program Ukraine Facility which is designed to support large-scale projects “allocating up to €50billion for 2024 to 2027”[6].
2. The People’s Republic of China. China represents one of the biggest challenges Europe has to face in 2024 and the following years. Founded on Marxist-Leninist principles, China is slowly but surely building its spheres of influence around “wooden language” (“sustainability”, “mutually beneficial cooperation”, “peaceful development”), trying at the same time to diminish the US influence from the international arena and to infiltrate within the European Union with its gigantic economic program “Belt and Road Initiative”. This project is based on the mechanism of debt-trap diplomacy, defined as “providing projects/loans with too challenging terms for borrowing states to pay back, ultimately forcing them to accept economic or political concessions”[7]. Putting substantial military pressure on Taiwan and the South China Sea and succeeding in the last years in hypnotizing public opinion with its “commitment to peace and cooperation”, China has built an empire of surveillance mechanisms, technological development (using theft mechanisms) and large infrastructure projects, meant to make more and more countries dependent on China’s “goodwill”. For example, a famous case in which China succeeded in extending its debt-trap diplomacy in the European Union is the Piraeus Port in Greece, where China started to control 2/3 of its assets in the context of the 2015 Greek economic crisis[8]. Another famous case near the EU is Montenegro, which could not pay the 1 billion US dollars for a controversial highway project[9]. For this reason, the EU has to cooperate with the United States in order to establish a grand strategy for protecting not only its interests on the international arena, but also its member states from a danger disguised in really nice clothes.
3. The phenomena of disinformation and fake news. In a year of elections in more than 60 countries (including the United States, United Kingdom, Ukraine, India, South Korea and Indonesia[10]), online disinformation represents one of the biggest challenges individuals have to face. Controversial online websites that promote fake news and conspiracy theories, social media fake accounts, bots and deepfakes that target a certain fraction of the population will be crucial for the way in which people will choose to vote. For example, a study from 2019 made by iProov showed that almost 75% of the UK public was unaware of the deepfake threat[11], which, according to the Merriam-Webster online dictionary, represents “an image or recording that has been convincingly altered and manipulated to misrepresent someone as doing or saying something that was not actually done or said”[12]. At the same time, a report from EUROPOL from 2022 showed that 90% of the online content could be “synthetically generated by 2026”[13]. At the same time, the intelligence systems of the member states need to be ready to tackle the disinformation campaign coming both from Russia and China.

[1] “Konrad Adenauer: a pragmatic democrat and tireless unifier”, European Union, accessed at https://european-union.europa.eu/principles-countries-history/history-eu/eu-pioneers/konrad-adenauer_en on 23.01.2024

[2] “Ukraine 2023 Report. Accompanying the document Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions 2023 Communication on EU Enlargement policy”, p. 70, accessed at https://neighbourhood-enlargement.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2023-11/SWD_2023_699%20Ukraine%20report.pdf on 23.01.2024

[3] Ibidem, p. 13

[4] “EU Assisstance to Ukraine”, European Commission, accessed at https://eu-solidarity-ukraine.ec.europa.eu/eu-assistance-ukraine_en#strong-and-comprehensive-eu-response on 23.01.2024

[5] “Ukraine Support Tracker”, accessed at https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/ on 23.01.2024

[6] “Establishing the Ukraine Facility Financing Ukraine’s recovery and its path to EU accession”, European Parliament, accessed at  https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2023/753954/EPRS_BRI(2023)753954_EN.pdf on 23.01.2024

[7] Rahul AJNOTI, “The Complete Story of Debt-Trap Diplomacy”, accessed at https://thegeopolitics.com/the-complete-story-of-debt-trap-diplomacy/ on 23.01.2024

[8] Kaki BALI, “In Greece’s largest port of Piraeus, China is the boss”, Deutsche Welle, 30th October 2022, accessed at https://www.dw.com/en/greece-in-the-port-of-piraeus-china-is-the-boss/a-63581221 on 04.01.2024

[9] “Montenegro, the first victim of China’s debt trap diplomacy”, New Eastern Europe, 7^th May 2021, accessed at https://neweasterneurope.eu/2021/05/07/montenegro-the-first-victim-of-chinas-debt-trap-diplomacy/ on 23.01.2024

[10] Koh EWE, “The Ultimate Election Year: All the Elections Around the World in 2024”, Time Magazine, 28th December 2023, accessed at https://time.com/6550920/world-elections-2024/ on 23.01.2024

[11] “Almost Three Quarters of UK Public Unaware of Deepfake Threat, New Research Reveals”, iProov, 1st October 2019, accessed at https://www.iproov.com/press/uk-public-deepfake-threat on 23.01.2024

[12] “deepfake”, Merriam-Webster, accessed at https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/deepfake on 23.01.2024

[13] “Facing reality? Law enforcement and the challenge of deepfakes”, EUROPOL, Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, accessed at https://www.europol.europa.eu/cms/sites/default/files/documents/Europol_Innovation_Lab_Facing_Reality_Law_Enforcement_And_The_Challenge_Of_Deepfakes.pdf on 23.01.2024